[SMM Analysis] Shanghai Nickel ends six consecutive gains and the rising trend slows down will it hover high in the sky?

Today, Shanghai Nickel continued to fluctuate during the day. By the end of the day, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 137580 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.04%, ending six consecutive gains before the end. The futures price of stainless steel also fell. By the end of the day, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was at 16645 yuan / ton, a drop of 0.63%.

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After Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell made a series of dove calls to appease the market, the metal market gradually emerged from the fear of inflation. Under the moderation of macro factors, the financial side finally dared to make a positive response to the strong fundamentals of the nickel market. Due to the low level of domestic inventories and warehouse orders in the previous period, the bulls continued to increase their positions in recent months to expand the back structure of Shanghai Nickel; after the proposal to increase export tariffs was reported from the Russian side overseas in the middle of the week, the Lunni structure turned back to the back structure again after November 2019, thus repairing the jump gap of Shanghai Nickel in March.

When the price of nickel has reached a three-month high and there are only three trading days left before the delivery month, the large position in Shanghai Nickel 07 contract has become a new contradiction. Taking into account the exchange position restrictions, recent month contracts are expected to continue to significantly reduce positions this week. In terms of fundamentals, although the short-term is not bad for the time being, the most tense period on the overall supply side may have passed. Even if the tax on Russian nickel exports is settled in the future, it also reflects the use of policies by overseas countries to deal with inflation, which is consistent with that of China in terms of tone. As a result, the rise in nickel prices is expected to slow, and prices are more likely to consolidate at high levels this week.